What Beat What in Legacy at Grand Prix Atlanta

Grand Prix Atlanta was the first top-level event to feature Wrenn and Six in Legacy, and the card immediately made its presence felt. The 2 mana planeswalker dominated the charts, both among the most popular and most successful decks. Temur Delver alone accounted for 9.7% of the starting field and filled 23.4% of the Top 64 ranks at the tournament’s conclusion.

Wrenn and Six

Players in Atlanta completed a total of 3,615 matches—that is without byes and draws—leaving a wealth of additional data to analyze. This article contains information on all pairings in which one archetype exhibited a significant advantage over another.

This means to exclude, for example, Temur Delver’s 24-20 record versus Jeskai Mentor or Grixis Control’s 2-0 victory over Maverick. If you were to perform 44 coin flips, the chance to win 24 or more of them amounts to 32.6%. Similarly, going 2-0 in coin flips comes with a probability of 25%. One can’t say with any kind of confidence that these matchups favored one deck.

51 pairings did show a more or less clear favorite and are listed below: results at least as extreme as the following would occur in coin-toss tournaments with a probability of less than 10% (p<0.1).

Legacy Winrates from GP Atlanta

Temur Delver (won 55.2% of 777 matches)

  • won 70.0% of 40 matches versus Sneak and Show (p=0.008)
  • won 66.7% of 45 matches versus Reanimator (p=0.018)
  • won 80.0% of 10 matches versus Painter (p=0.055)
  • won 62.0% of 50 matches versus Four-Color Control (p=0.059)
  • won 65.5% of 29 matches versus Death and Taxes (p=0.068)
  • won 12.5% of 8 matches versus Manaless Dredge (p=0.035)

Our top dog convincingly crushed Sneak and Show as well as Reanimator. Its results versus Death and Taxes, Four-Color Control, and Painter weren’t as significantly positive. Temur Delver also didn’t dominate a lot of matchups. Its overall win rate of 55.2% was the result of doing decently against the field at large rather than doing exceptionally well against specific opponents. This is often the mark of a format-defining archetype.

Indeed, Temur Delver players won more matches than they lost, if barely in some cases, against all of the following: Twelve Post, Four-Color Delver, Four-Color Loam, Affinity, Arclight Phoenix, Burn, Depths, Eldrazi, Enchantress, Food Chain, Goblins, Grixis, Infect, Jeskai, Maverick, Merfolk, Miracles, Nic Fit, Omni Tell, Red Prison, Tin Fins, Blue-Red Delver, and even the white-blue Helm of Obedience deck with its Rest in Peace. You can hardly get a broader cross section than that.

In stark contrast, only Manaless Dredge posted a meaningful winning record versus Temur. Naya Loam delivered the next best performance at 5-1, followed by Death’s Shadow’s 7-3, and Humans’ 4-1. But you’d get results this good or better in literal coin tosses 11–19% of the time. Storm’s 27-20 and Stoneblade’s 20-15 results against Temur aren’t significant by any kind of standard either.

Reanimator (won 43.9% of 424 matches)

  • won 87.5% of 8 matches versus Four-Color Delver (p=0.035)
  • won 69.6% of 23 matches versus Sneak and Show (p=0.047)
  • won 80.0% of 10 matches versus Burn (p=0.055)
  • won 100.0% of 4 matches versus Omni Tell (p=0.063)
  • won 29.4% of 17 matches versus Red Prison (p=0.072)
  • won 28.6% of 21 matches versus Death and Taxes (p=0.039)
  • won 33.3% of 45 matches versus Temur Delver (p=0.018)
  • won 23.8% of 21 matches versus Jeskai Mentor (p=0.013)
  • won 13.0% of 23 matches versus Black-Green Depths (p<0.001)

Reanimator enjoyed slightly fewer positive than negative pairings. However, the negative were more significantly negative than the positive were positive. Its overall performance also didn’t match its position as the second most popular archetype.

Four-Color Control (won 52.9% of 414 matches)

  • won 100.0% of 7 matches versus Merfolk (p=0.008)
  • won 73.3% of 15 matches versus Four-Color Loam (p=0.059)
  • won 68.2% of 22 matches versus Black-Green Depths (p=0.067)
  • won 0.0% of 4 matches versus Hogaak (p=0.063)
  • won 38.0% of 50 matches versus Temur Delver (p=0.059)
  • won 0.0% of 5 matches versus Manaless Dredge (p=0.031)

With the exception of Merfolk and Manaless Dredge, none of Four-Color Control’s matchup results were all that significant. The deck appears to be another allrounder.

The surprise success of Manaless Dredge on the other hand—whose pilots won 57.1% of 56 matches in Atlanta—seems to be the result of an advantage in certain matchups. Though it remains dubious whether or not its run can continue now that the cat’s out of the bag. Something as simple as a turn-one Relic of Progenitus should beat Manaless Dredge in a few games all by itself.

Jeskai Mentor (won 53.9% of 397 matches)

  • won 76.2% of 21 matches versus Reanimator (p=0.013)
  • won 85.7% of 7 matches versus Four-Color Delver (p=0.063)
  • won 71.4% of 14 matches versus Red Prison (p=0.090)

Jeskai Mentor did not lose against any deck in any significant way. The losing record least likely based on pure variance was a 2-5 tangle with Painter—at p=0.227—followed by 0-2 run-ins with both Humans and Twelve Post. The tournament really gave no evidence of bad matchups, although the above doesn’t make for a long list of good matchups either.

Blue-Red Delver (won 52.6% of 384 matches)

  • won 100.0% of 6 matches versus Mystic Forge Combo (p=0.016)
  • won 70.8% of 24 matches versus Sneak and Show (p=0.032)
  • won 80.0% of 10 matches versus Twelve Post (p=0.055)
  • won 100.0% of 4 matches versus Eldrazi Aggro (p=0.063)
  • won 85.7% of 7 matches versus The Antiquities War (p=0.063)
  • won 0.0% of 4 matches versus White-Blue Helm (p=0.063)
  • won 20.0% of 10 matches versus Bomberman (p=0.055)

With the exception of Sneak and Show, Blue-Red Delver had its most significant results exclusively against fringe archetypes.

Sneak and Show (won 48.5% of 363 matches)

  • won 78.6% of 14 matches versus Red Prison (p=0.029)
  • won 72.2% of 18 matches versus Stoneblade (p=0.048)
  • won 0.0% of 4 matches versus Four-Color Delver (p=0.063)
  • won 26.7% of 15 matches versus Death and Taxes (p=0.059)
  • won 30.4% of 23 matches versus Reanimator (p=0.047)
  • won 12.5% of 8 matches versus Dredge (p=0.035)
  • won 29.2% of 24 matches versus Blue-Red Delver (p=0.032)
  • won 30.0% of 40 matches versus Temur Delver (p=0.008)

50 Sneak and Show players completed fewer matches than 47 Blue-Red Delver players, which always is a very bad sign. This spread doesn’t look promising either.

Black-Green Depths (won 53.9% of 356 matches)

  • won 87.0% of 23 matches versus Reanimator (p<0.001)
  • won 31.8% of 22 matches versus Four-Color Control (p=0.067)

Black-Green Depths wins the prize for the most conclusive performance across all pairings of the whole tournament with its unparalleled 20-3 run against Reanimator.

Storm (won 49.5% of 311 matches)

  • won 90.0% of 10 matches versus Elves (p=0.011)
  • won 0.0% of 5 matches versus Four-Color Delver (p=0.031)

The deck that won the Grand Prix went about even against all the major archetypes, though slightly negative overall.

Stoneblade (won 45.8% of 301 matches)

  • won 22.2% of 9 matches versus Bomberman (p=0.090)
  • won 14.3% of 7 matches versus Four-Color Delver (p=0.063)
  • won 0.0% of 4 matches versus Goblins (p=0.063)
  • won 27.8% of 18 matches versus Sneak and Show (p=0.048)

By far Stoneblade’s most significantly positive matchup was its 5-1 versus Maverick, and even that wasn’t very significant.

Red Prison (53.6% of 295 matches)

  • won 100.0% of 6 matches versus Lands (p=0.016)
  • won 85.7% of 7 matches versus Four-Color Delver (p=0.063)
  • won 85.7% of 7 matches versus Infect (p=0.063)
  • won 70.6% of 17 matches versus Reanimator (p=0.072)
  • won 28.6% of 14 matches versus Jeskai Mentor (p=0.090)
  • won 0.0% of 5 matches versus Goblins (p=0.031)
  • won 21.4% of 14 matches versus Sneak and Show (p=0.029)
  • won 0.0% of 8 matches versus Death and Taxes (p=0.004)

One would expect decks with fewer total matches under their belt to accrue fewer notable records. To find such a long list so far down the line signifies a higher than normal tendency for lopsided matchups.

Death and Taxes (won 51.6% of 287 matches)

  • won 100.0% of 8 matches versus Red Prison (p=0.004)
  • won 71.4% of 21 matches versus Reanimator (p=0.039)
  • won 73.3% of 15 matches versus Sneak and Show (p=0.059)
  • won 34.5% of 29 matches versus Temur Delver (p=0.068)
  • won 0.0% of 4 matches versus Dredge (p=0.063)
  • won 12.5% of 8 matches versus Four-Color Loam (p=0.035)

What was true for Red Prison also applied to Death and Taxes, albeit to a smaller extent.

Four-Color Loam (won 48.6% of 214 matches)

  • won 87.5% of 8 matches versus Death and Taxes (p=0.035)
  • won 85.7% of 7 matches versus Bomberman (p=0.063)
  • won 85.7% of 7 matches versus Lands (p=0.063)
  • won 77.8% of 9 matches versus Burn (p=0.090)
  • won 26.7% of 15 matches versus Four-Color Control (p=0.059)

Bomberman (won 49.7% of 151 matches)

  • won 80.0% of 10 matches versus Blue-Red Delver (p=0.055)
  • won 77.8% of 9 matches versus Stoneblade (p=0.090)
  • won 14.3% of 7 matches versus Four-Color Loam (p=0.063)
  • won 0.0% of 5 matches versus Burn (p=0.031)

Infect (won 51.3% of 150 matches)

  • won 0.0% of 4 matches versus Four-Color Delver (p=0.063)
  • won 14.3% of 7 matches versus Red Prison (p=0.063)

Lands (won 41.8% of 146 matches)

  • won 14.3% of 7 matches versus Four-Color Loam (p=0.063)
  • won 0.0% of 4 matches versus Death’s Shadow (p=0.063)
  • won 0.0% of 6 matches versus Red Prison (p=0.016)

With this, we’ve reached the end of the line. Giving additional archetypes their own section would only repeat information already listed above.

TL;DR

Find below all the matchup results between the 13 archetypes that completed the most matches overall:

GP Atlanta Legacy Winrates

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