Over the next month, the Magic world will be focused almost entirely on two things: the release of Dark Ascension and the Modern PTQ season. All the Standard junkies and casual folk are going to be scrambling for the newest chase cards while the PTQ grinders will be trading everything they own for sets of Tarmogoyfs, Dark Confidants, and Ravnica shock lands.

We’ll cover Modern next week, but for now I’d like to focus on what to pick up from overeager players who will be scrambling for your newer or hotter staples.

That’s right, it’s finally time to start aggressively trading for Innistrad cards!

Once Dark Ascension comes out, Innistrad will be yesterday’s news – the ‘boring’ two packs that have to be opened at the end of the draft after the good stuff in pack one. The cards will be omnipresent in everyone’s binders, but the demand will never be lower.

Now that we know Avacyn Restored is a stand-alone set, the window to get your Innistrad cards on the cheap is already starting to close. I recommend buying in while the perceived value on many of these cards is very low – your next chance to get a good deal is after the set rotates out of Standard.

I covered some of my Innistrad sleeper picks in my mailbag article a few weeks ago, but thought it would be useful to go further in depth and examine all of the interesting cards in the set one at a time. As an added wrinkle, I’m going to give my best guess for short, medium, and long-term projections for each card.

The short term projection is for four months out – the height of Standard season in April.

The medium term projection is a year and four months out – Standard season next year.

The long term projection is for three to four years out, focusing on Eternal and Casual value only.

My projected prices are all optimistic guesses based on selling into a demand-driven market – selling Standard cards during Standard season. As always, prices are Channelfireball.com current retail. I’ll cover the set in decreasing value order from the most valuable card to the bulk I think has the best chance of becoming relevant.

Liliana of the Veil – $30

Liliana’s been on a downward trend lately, though not a catastrophic one. She appears in more than a few Standard decks, but hasn’t become the staple that the MBC nuts wanted her to be. This is mostly because she lacks the support needed to make her truly shine.

Liliana is, however, making waves in Modern – the new Jund lists run her as a four-of and her power has been proven as legit. It’s possible to snap these up for around $25 in trades, and I believe her day will still come.

Of course, I could have said the same thing about the now $15 Koth at this point last year, but I think Liliana is much more powerful and is a far better bet to succeed.

Short-Term Projection: $35
Medium Term Projection: $45
Long-Term Projection: $30

Snapcaster Mage – $30

I’ve probably wrote five thousand words just on this little dude since he first came out. You’d think I would have opened one in a pack by now, right? Seriously, I’ve drafted the set a ton, I’ve opened pretty much all the other cards, but Snappy continues to elude me. Ah well – I guess it was my fault for ragging on Tiago’s ‘drafting with’ series on SCG so much back in the day. He always seemed to end up in infinite colors with about seven actual playables and fourteen Ember Gales.

This card is a multi-format all-star. It’s like Jace but less frustrating to play against. It’s like Tarmogoyf but actually blue. It’s like Stoneforge Mystic but not banned. It’s like Eternal Witness but cheaper and better. It’s fun, elegant, and never feels like a dead draw. Can you tell I love this card?

How expensive would Tarmogoyf be right now if he was in a large, popular set instead of a small, unpopular third set? Certainly not $100, but he’d be at least $50, right?

This card may yet sink $25, but if it does it won’t be for long. I see great things for this card’s future price.

Short-Term Projection: $30
Medium Term Projection: $40
Long-Term Projection: $50

Garruk Relentless//Garruk, the Veil-Cursed – $20

Garruk is on the fringes of playability in both Standard and Modern. He shows up occasionally and has huge casual appeal, but he has yet to cement himself as one of the flagships of the format.

$20 retail is too high to speculate on, and he sees enough play to keep him out of the $10-$15 range. Garruk is worth keeping an eye on – his ceiling is $50 if he ends up as a 4-of in something awesome this spring – but more likely he’ll bump around between $15 and $25 for the next year or so.

Short-Term Projection: $15
Medium Term Projection: $15
Long-Term Projection: $12

Geist of Saint Traft – $16

Geist, along with Snapcaster Mage, has been the biggest success story of the set in terms of Standard. Seriously, go look at the past couple weeks worth of MTGO daily events and you’ll see just how many first and second place finishes come from decks running 2-4 of this guy.

If Geist-based decks are still as big a part of the metagame a year from now, this card might double in value once the set gets scarce. If something comes around that relegates Geist to the second tier, the price is gonna sink to $5-$6 VERY quickly.

How lucky do you feel?

Short-Term Projection: $25
Medium Term Projection: $15
Long-Term Projection: $5

Olivia Voldaren – $10

Olivia’s success at Worlds was an awesome story that made me a decent profit, but I’m not sure I like her long term projections. As a casual hit she’ll likely never fall below $5-$6, but the she never really materialized as the scourge of Standard. Interest for this card on the trade tables is quite low, and I believe she’ll be in the $7-$8 range before long.

Short-Term Projection: $7
Medium Term Projection: $5
Long-Term Projection: $8

Past in Flames – $8

This card, however, is going in the other direction.

A week ago it was easy to pick these up between $3-$4, and some places had ‘em as low as $2! The Modern storm deck changed all of that, and this card has proven itself as the pillar of a very competitive eternal deck that is otherwise quite cheap to play. That’s the hallmark of a card that has a chance to do silly things in terms of price.

Because the holiday season is such a slow time for Magic speculation, you can still find these for $4 or so on some retail sites, but I don’t expect that will last much longer. Pick up your set now – they’ll be going up sooner rather than later as Modern starts cooking.

Long term, Past in Flames profiles as a valuable, powerful card. I expect this, Snapcaster Mage, Liliana of the Veil, and Delver of Secrets to be the four cards people think about when they remember Innistrad as an Eternal set.

Short-Term Projection: $12
Medium Term Projection: $8
Long-Term Projection: $20

Stromkirk Noble – $6

Historically, aggressive red cards haven’t been worth that much and don’t hold value well. Obviously tier-1 things like Goblin Piledriver are exceptions, but if you take a look at the past couple of years they never really seem to meet expectation for long – Kargan Dragonlord and Goblin Guide are two of the bigger success stories, and both had precipitous falls.

Anyway, the Noble will keep showing up in the decks he’s good in, but I don’t see a long-term value play with him at all.

Short-Term Projection: $6
Medium Term Projection: $4
Long-Term Projection: $2

Mikaeus, the Lunarch – $5

Mikaeus’ surge has stopped, and I’ve seen far fewer copies of this running around lately. I called him a ‘buy’ last month, but I think he might dip down into the $3 range before finding a new home.

I still think this card has a better than average chance of some medium term redemption. Obviously we don’t know what next season’s Standard will look like, but would it surprise you if Mikaeus was somehow involved in a winning deck between now and rotation?

Short-Term Projection: $3
Medium Term Projection: $8
Long-Term Projection: $4

Sulfur Falls – $5

Twice as much as the cheapest of these lands, no doubt due to the prevalence of R/U Delver decks in Standard and Modern as well as the innate power level of the colors together – Scalding Tarn is the Fetchland that has shown to have the most consistent demand.

This land is not quite the bargain that the others are right now, but is still a reasonable pickup medium term – I expect it to be similar to Seachrome Coast next spring.

Long term, however, I like these lands far less. At some point, this cycle will probably show up in a base set. They’re also outclassed by almost all the other fixing options available.

Short-Term Projection: $5
Medium Term Projection: $10
Long-Term Projection: $2

Bloodline Keeper//Lord of Lineage – $4

This is one of those great cards where the perceived value is much lower than the actual price. This card may never see much tournament play, but it won’t matter – solid Vampires and Elves are all solid bets long term, as are Zombies and Slivers.

Short-Term Projection: $4
Medium Term Projection: $4
Long-Term Projection: $6

Isolated Chapel & Woodland Cemetery – $4

I like the chapel slightly more in the medium term because I think Solar Flare might get some more key pieces in Dark Ascension, but it’s important to constantly re-evaluate these as the metagame shifts and grows.

Short-Term Projection: $4
Medium Term Projection: $8
Long-Term Projection: $2

Army of the Damned – $3.50

If Death Baron – which is not a Mythic – is $10, I have no trouble believing that this zombie-related finisher has a rosy casual future as well. Pick these up soon – they will go up over time due to coolness factor alone.

Short-Term Projection: $4
Medium Term Projection: $6
Long-Term Projection: $8

Skaab Ruinator – $3.50

I don’t really know how to write a prediction for this one because so much depends on future sets. Faithless Looting is a nice start, but is it enough? A card that requires a ton of spells (Delver) is much more likely to be useful than a card that requires you to play a million creatures, since it’s more likely the spells will be far better at enabling your deck and filling your graveyard. Getting a ton of these clogging up your hand is just terrible, and being a 1-of in some mediocre Birthing Pod deck won’t get this back up to $20+ anytime soon.

That said, the raw power on this guy is certainly there. I’m predicting ruin for this guy, but that can change in an instant.

Short-Term Projection: $3
Medium Term Projection: $2
Long-Term Projection: $2

Champion of the Parish – $3

This card is showing up in a ton of winning decks right now, and I expect Dark Ascension to have a few more playable humans. This is one of those sneaky rares that can get up into the $7 rage and make you angry during PTQ season.

Short-Term Projection: $5
Medium Term Projection: $5
Long-Term Projection: $2

Hinterland Harbor – $3

At $3, this has a shot at being the best bargain of the cycle. Who doesn’t love a Tropical Island?

Short-Term Projection: $4
Medium Term Projection: $8
Long-Term Projection: $2

Moorland Haunt – $3

Another card that’s gone up in price already over the past few weeks, I love the haunt (and this entire cycle) going forward. This is seeing play in winning decks right now, so pick them up from anyone who still treats it as a $1 rare.

Short-Term Projection: $4
Medium Term Projection: $4
Long-Term Projection: $6

Angelic Overseer – $2.50

Sadly, the days of Angels holding value just by being Angels is over. This card is lifelink away from being good, anyway, so…yeah.

Short-Term Projection: $2
Medium Term Projection: $2
Long-Term Projection: $2

Clifftop Retreat – $2.50

Apparently no one loves a Plateau.

Short-Term Projection: $3
Medium Term Projection: $5
Long-Term Projection: $2

Grimoire of the Dead – $2.50

This card is AWESOME in, like, three very specific Commander decks and is kind of awful in everything else.

Short-Term Projection: $2
Medium Term Projection: $2
Long-Term Projection: $2

Gavony Township – $2

My love for this card is similar to my love for Snapcaster Mage. Maybe he and I should move to Gavony together and start a township.

Seriously, though, this is a slam dunk to gain value due to casual play and it’s not half bad in Standard, either.

Short-Term Projection: $2
Medium Term Projection: $3
Long-Term Projection: $6

Grimgrin, Corpse-Born – $2

The real play for this guy is in foils – he’s a fun Commander general that should remain popular for years. I don’t see the regular versions going up in price much, though, because the drawback is the sort of thing casual players hate.

Short-Term Projection: $2
Medium Term Projection: $2
Long-Term Projection: $3

Heartless Summoning – $2

Yeah, I wanted this to be good too. For some reason, though, it already feels like a bulk rare to my brain so I’m just going with that instinct.

Short-Term Projection: $1
Medium Term Projection: $0.50
Long-Term Projection: $0.50

Kessig Wolf Run – $2

This is a powerful card, but I don’t think it’ll have as much long term casual or Eternal value as the rest of this cycle. Aggressive cards tend to be worth less than control cards, and R/G isn’t a popular casual combination.

Short-Term Projection: $2
Medium Term Projection: $3
Long-Term Projection: $3

Mayor of Avabruck – $2

This would probably be at $3-$3.50 already had the promo version never been made. Mayor is quite a nice card, and it’s started to show up in some pretty nice decks. I like it as a medium-term pickup.

Short-Term Projection: $2
Medium Term Projection: $4
Long-Term Projection: $2

Tree of Redemption – $2

It’s a plant, not a Treefolk, so its feelings won’t be hurt when I tell you that it’s terrible.

Short-Term Projection: $1
Medium Term Projection: $1
Long-Term Projection: $1

Balefire Dragon – $1.50

This crummy mythic I actually like more. It’s devastating off a Kalia, and it has more casual application than most people give it credit for.

Short-Term Projection: $1.50
Medium Term Projection: $2
Long-Term Projection: $2.50

Instigator Gang//Wildblood Pack – $1.50

I’ve heard grumblings of this being a sleeper, so keep an eye on it. I’m not buying it, though.

Short-Term Projection: $1
Medium Term Projection: $0.25
Long-Term Projection: $0.25

Parallel Lives- $1.50

No one is trading for this yet, but I’ve noticed it’s still a card that generates a lot of attention in binders nonetheless. I love it as a long-term casual play and predict a slow but steady rise.

Short-Term Projection: $2
Medium Term Projection: $3
Long-Term Projection: $4

Reaper from the Abyss – $1.50

Feel free to read the Balefire Dragon paragraph again and put it here.

Short-Term Projection: $1.50
Medium Term Projection: $2
Long-Term Projection: $2.50

Bloodgift Demon – $1

This is going to be a Commander staple for the next several years and will probably hold a similar value to Phyrexian Arena. I like that card more, but most black decks should be running both.

Short-Term Projection: $1
Medium Term Projection: $2
Long-Term Projection: $3

Daybreak Ranger//Nightfall Predator – $1

I want to get Brian Kibler and Brad Nelson to both sign one of these for me.

Then I’m going to burn it on some sort of funeral pyre while doing an aboriginal war dance in my gym shorts.

Short-Term Projection: $1
Medium Term Projection: -$10,000
Long-Term Projection: Being in possession of one of these will cause the Minority Report guys to come to your house and kill you.

Endless Ranks of the Dead – $1

It might hold at $1 thanks to awesome art and flavor, but rare is the deck that actually wants to play it.

Short-Term Projection: $1
Medium Term Projection: $0.50
Long-Term Projection: $0.50

Essence of the Wild – $1

This card is good to play before you drop that dumb tree. Otherwise? I mean, it’s actually better than people think in token Commander decks, but I’ve yet to see anyone want to go there yet. For some reason, people just hate this card – casual players too. I don’t think that will change anytime soon.

Short-Term Projection: $1
Medium Term Projection: $1
Long-Term Projection: $1

Kruin Outlaw//Terror of Kruin Pass – $1

The werewolves are SOO freaking awkward in every kind of constructed. I just don’t know when you’d ever want to cast this guy.

Short-Term Projection: $1
Medium Term Projection: $0.50
Long-Term Projection: $0.25

Mentor of the Meek – $1

This is the perfect buy low target. He’s probably going to be constructed playable at some point, and casual players LOVE him. No idea why he’s down to a buck, but I bought a set at that price and am happy that I did.

Short-Term Projection: $1.50
Medium Term Projection: $2
Long-Term Projection: $3

Nephalia Drownyard – $1

Much like the other lands in this cycle, I expect this to be a popular casual card years from now. Mill stuff sells – always has, probably always will.

Short-Term Projection: $2
Medium Term Projection: $3
Long-Term Projection: $5

Unbreathing Horde – $1

Even most dedicated Zombie decks don’t want this durdle. He’s pretty actively bad in Commander, too.

Short-Term Projection: $0.50
Medium Term Projection: $0.25
Long-Term Projection: $0.25

Devil’s Play – $0.80

I like this card – it sees play, too – but it seems like it is destined to never break $1.

Short-Term Projection: $1
Medium Term Projection: $1
Long-Term Projection: $0.50

Geist-Honored Monk – $0.80

I still think this card has some real room to grow – another solid pickup.

Short-Term Projection: $1
Medium Term Projection: $3
Long-Term Projection: $0.50

Mirror-Mad Phantasm – $0.80

Even the crummy mythics from Conflux are $1! What is so wretched about this dude that makes him half as good as, say, Mirror-Sigil Sergeant?

Short-Term Projection: $1
Medium Term Projection: $1
Long-Term Projection: $1

Elite Inquisitor – $0.80

This card is awesome in my hypothetical 2013 Standard deck that also runs Geist-Honored Monk. Take that, non-flying Vampires!

Short-Term Projection: $1
Medium Term Projection: $2
Long-Term Projection: $0.50

$0.25 – $0.50 Rares I Like as Deep Sleepers

Runechanter’s Pike
Laboratory Maniac
Stony Silence
Stensia Bloodhall

Runechanter’s Pike is seeing more constructed play right now than 90% of this list. Seriously – check out the Standard dailies! I know the card is such a trap in draft, but it’s proving it’s mettle in decks like Standard infect and should be $1+ before long.

The other three are all powerful effects that haven’t found the right home. I can see any one of the three showing up in a Legacy event at some point in the future and having a massive price swing.

$0.25 – $0.50 Rares That May See Fringe/Casual Play and a Small Price Bump

$0.25 – $0.50 Rares That Are True Bulk

The “Money” Commons/Uncommons

These are the commons and uncommons that have a very good shot to be worth $1 or more once the set stops being drafted and the demand goes up:

I expect the more Standard-friendly cards like Dissipate and Midnight Haunting to have more demand in the medium term, while cards like Rakish Heir and Unburial Rites probably have a couple of years ahead before hitting the $1 mark.

Delver of Secrets almost assuredly will hit $1 at some point, and I recommend picking these up from people who value them at bulk prices now because they’re common.

That’s all for this week! Join me next time as we take another long look at Modern.

- Chas Andres