Concluding a journey we started last week, I am reviewing all of my Channel Fireball articles to date in order to see how well they’ve held up. I’ve found juicy nuggets of wisdom in some while laughably incorrect predictions have marred the usefulness of others.
I’ve been looking at these articles through two different lenses – how useful they are now and how useful they were then. While some were designed to make you money in the moment, others are still relevant today.
The first article we’re going to talk about this week is an example of the latter.
Published Date: August 3rd, 2011
Topic: A review of all the tokens in Magic, both Wizards-made and third party.
Longevity: Very high. I still reference this article whenever I see a unique token.
Best Advice: N/A
Worst Advice: N/A
Overall Rating: This was the hardest article I’ve researched by far, but the payoff was huge. It’s a fairly comprehensive review of all the tokens in the entire game and is worth bookmarking or printing out and holding on to. There is no other site that has all of this information in one place, and I reference it myself every time I come across a weird token. I’d be shocked if tons of people haven’t gotten great deals thanks to this one. 5 out of 5 stars.
The only problem with this article is that I misstated that only the large expansions come with rare tokens. That’s incorrect – the small sets do as well. For whatever reason, most large retail stores sell the small set rare tokens for the same price as the common ones. That’s how I missed something that should have been obvious.
Published Date: August 10th, 2011
Topic: A look at when it might be right to buy collections sight unseen in the hopes of reaping a large profit.
Longevity: High.
Best Advice: Telling people to generally hold off from buying collections sight unseen. The gamble is fun, but it rarely pays off.
Worst Advice: N/A
Overall Rating: It’s a pity Channel Fireball wiped the comments on all their old articles, because the responses to this one got really interesting. In the article, I talked a lot about a collection that sold on eBay for a couple thousand dollars. The listing appeared to have been for boxes upon boxes of loose Alpha and Beta rares.
In the comments, the player who bought the lot responded and talked about his experience with the whole thing – a buy that turned out to be a scam. Eventually, some of my astute readers found the same seller continuing to run the con on eBay under slightly different user IDs. Unfortunately, even though we reported him as a scammer en masse, eBay did nothing to pull the auctions. Overall, I’m giving this one 3 out of 5 stars. It would have gotten a higher rating had we stopped the thief.
Published Date: August 16th, 2011
Topic: A full analysis of the cards that might make an impact in Modern as speculation went through the roof.
Longevity: Low.
Best Advice: Calling Gifts Ungiven at $4 was an excellent bit of advice. So was telling people to snag sets of Plow Unders at $1 each. I was spot on with Vesuva as well, and I stand by telling people to sell their Shocks and Groves at their very high initial hype price. Overall, I did a good job predicting the popularity of the format going forward.
Worst Advice: A lot of the cards on here never did much of anything. I also missed the [card disrupting shoal]Disrupting[/card]/Blazing Shoal deck, but so did everyone else.
Overall Rating: This was much like my Legacy article from earlier in the year, but with a far greater degree of accuracy. I stand by this one as a fair assessment of Modern during a week when the hype was out of control. 4 out of 5 stars.
Published Date: August 24th, 2011
Topic: A scathing review of the latest promo set, From the Vault: Legends.
Longevity: Low.
Best Advice: I accurately described just how terrible this set was. I was right.
Worst Advice: I don’t think I went far enough. My predictions were too high on every single card, and here I thought I was being a raging pessimist!
People REALLY, REALLY hated this set.
Overall Rating: I’m giving this one a 2 out of 5 because I think I did a good job theory-crafting a popular alternate-universe version of this set. I just wish I had hammered the prices even harder – they just went so much lower than any of the singles in the previous sets did, I didn’t have an accurate scale of comparison.
Published Date: August 31st, 2011
Topic: A hundred random thoughts, most having to do with Magic trading and others having to do with robots and music.
Longevity: Low.
Best Advice: My Amulet of Vigor spec paid off briefly until Twelvepost got banned. Cemetery Reaper was indeed a good pickup at $1. Phantasmal Image was an AWESOME pickup at just $3, as were the Scars ‘fast lands’ at $2-$5.
Worst Advice: I didn’t think we’d see as much Primeval Titan as we see now. Double-faced cards weren’t as awful as I thought they’d be.
Overall Rating: I’m giving this one a solid 3 out of 5 for being quite a bit of fun to write and reasonably enjoyable to re-read as well. I’m going to probably do another one of these pretty soon.
The Financial Fallout of PT: Philly
Published Date: September 7th, 2011
Topic: With the first Modern pro tour in the books, I took a look at the winning decklists in the hopes of providing insight on the format going forward.
Longevity: Low.
Best Advice: I named five cards as strong buys in this article: Scalding Tarn, Misty Rainforest, Blood Moon, Blinkmoth Nexus, and Mindbreak Trap. The fetchlands have maintained their value, while the other three cards almost doubled in value.
I nailed Life from the Loam, Tooth and Nail, and Plow Under as overpriced cards. All three have come down since then.
Worst Advice: I pushed the Zendikar fetches too hard. I still think I’m right about them, but it’s too soon to tell.
I called Dark Confidant, Cryptic Command, and Aether Vial a ‘sell.’ I was right about all three…until the next couple set of bannings hit.
Overall Rating: This is probably the best ‘analysis/basic pickup’ article I’ve done in terms of success. If you followed my advice, you’d have done very well for yourself across the board. There were no glaringly bad mistakes here, and I even brought up the likelihood of the Cloudpost banning at the end of the piece. 4 out of 5 stars.
Published Date: September 14th, 2011.
Topic: An introduction to the financial concept of arbitrage – the act of searching out an profiting on a gap between a known ‘sell’ price and another known ‘buy’ price.
Longevity: Very high.
Best Advice: N/A
Worst Advice: N/A
Overall Rating: I feel like I’ve given out a lot of 3 and 4 star ratings lately, and that’s because I was on a bit of a roll in the fall of 2011. This is another solid article, and it contains a ton of information that’s still very useful. I still struggle to find arbitrage opportunities in the MTG finance world, but they’re certainly out there if you look hard enough. This article is a must-read if you’re getting into the large event/travelling circuit. 4 out of 5 stars.
Published Date: September 20th, 2011.
Topic: A discussion of the concept of ‘price memory’ with a look at the Modern and Legacy bannings.
Longevity: Medium low. The stuff on price memory is good, but the examples are well out of date.
Best Advice: Telling people not to buy any of the mythic rares in Innistrad immediately upon release. Surprise surprise, only [card olivia voldaren]Olivia[/card] would have been a decent pickup. I was pretty close with my post-ban price predictions on Blazing Shoal and Vesuva.
Worst Advice: Where to begin? I was wrong about High Tide backing a resurgence in Legacy. I was wrong about Splinter Twin being dead in Modern. I was wrong about Primeval Titan continuing to drop in price. I was wrong about Legacy prices starting to trend upward again.
Overall Rating: And just like that, my nice little streak of useful articles ends. This article was WAY more wrong than right, and my analysis of the format just got exponentially worse the more words went on the page. 1 out of 5 stars.
Published Date: September 28th, 2011.
Topic: A look at the best ‘classic’ draft formats and the relative affordability of retro drafting.
Longevity: High. The prices are different now, but the thesis remains solid.
Best Advice: Telling people to buy sealed boxes. The week this was published, the price on many of these things on eBay went up 20%-30%
Worst Advice: In my ‘pick of the week,’ I told people to sell Snapcaster Mage. While he did come down in price a little, he certainly hasn’t dipped munch.
Overall Rating: This is one of my favorites – drafting with sweet old packs is just about the most fun thing you can do. The only part of Magic I like more than trading is drafting, and this is the perfect intersection of the two. The price on some of these boxes is down again, too, so get buying! 4 out of 5 stars.
Published Date: October 5th, 2011
Topic: Buy/Sell/Hold on all the most-discussed cards from Innistrad.
Longevity: Very low.
Best Advice: When Stromkirk Noble was $10, I told people it would drop to $4-$5. It’s $5.50 now. When Geist of Saint Traft was $15, I told people to buy. It’s $25 now. When Liliana was $60, I told people to sell. It’s $30 now. I recommended a buy on Chandra’s Phoenix at $3 and a sell on Birthing Pod at $13.
Worst Advice: I recommended a buy on Garruk at $25. It’s $15 now. I recommended a buy on Mayor of Avabruck at $4. It’s $3 now. I talked up Wolf Run and Mikaeus far too much
I also may have said some words about Daybreak Ranger, but I hired those guys from Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind to block them out of my memory.
Overall Rating: Split this one down the middle and you get a good sense of how I did. I was right on a little over half of my predictions, but I think the ones I was right on were bigger hits and more important than the ones I missed. Only Garruk would have really hurt you. Even still, the article itself wasn’t all that original in concept, so I’ll give it a mere 2 out of 5 stars.
Published Date: October 12th, 2011
Topic: Is it ever right to buy ‘repacks’ of Magic cards, usually found in places like eBay?
Longevity: High.
Best Advice: Don’t buy repacks. They’re terrible. I also continued telling people to sell Liliana at $60-$65 retail with as much force as I could.
Worst Advice: Unfortunately, Spoils of the Vault didn’t end up seeing enough Legacy play to get a price bump. It was an intriguing sleeper pick that didn’t pan out.
Overall Rating: I didn’t think this article needed to be written, but even after I put it up there were still people defending repacks in the comments! I don’t know why some people love these things so much, but the point stands – by and large, they’re a losing proposition.
This article would have gotten a 2 out of 5 stars for being obvious advice that most people should already know, except it did introduce the world to the concept of the ‘repack box’ – eBay auctions where people crack a box of the latest set for the money singles and then sell the rest for over 50% of the price of a fresh box of cards! This is the dumbest thing ever, and I can’t believe people are spending money on it. I’m giving this a 3 out of 5 in case I can stop even one more person from wasting their money on such an obvious scam.
Published Date: October 19th, 2011
Topic: An overview of negotiation tactics to help you close the deal on a favorable trade.
Longevity: Very high.
Best Advice: N/A
Worst Advice: N/A
Overall Rating: This is one of the most useful articles I’ve done to date. So many financial articles are just about how to best rip people off or which cards to speculate on. Almost no one writes about how to effectively close a deal when you’re in the trenches. If too many of your trade attempts end up in frustration and refusal, check this one out! 4 out of 5 stars.
The End of the World as We Know It
Published Date: November 6th, 2011
Topic: I make an impassioned plea to Wizards about their recent organized play changes while wondering what the future of Magic might be if the tournament system were to be phased out.
Longevity: Very low, though this one is still worth reading as a piece of historical content.
Best Advice: N/A
Worst Advice: N/A
Overall Rating: Of everything I’ve done, this is the piece that garnered the most attention. I never saw the traffic data, but I’d be shocked if this didn’t get 50% more hits than my next most read article. Even Patrick Chapin acknowledged it, which was unexpected considering most of my other interactions with the man have involved me very loudly calling him out on Twitter over his, um, intriguing political viewpoints.
I also have reason to believe that this article was passed around the halls at Wizards. Aaron Forsythe responded via Twitter to my calling them out on having their hands tied by Hasbro corporate ownership, and the good folks at WOTC said they were reading many of the most popular articles on the subject. I had people coming up to me for weeks afterward wanting to talk about this one, and I still think it was a fair take on an issue that has thankfully been resolved in the months since this was published.
I still believe many of the criticisms in this article are valid, and Wizards has done some things in recent years that have hurt the game. However, it was huge of them to re-examine these changes and fix organized play before it was too late. I feel like a major community crisis was narrowly averted, and if I was able to play even a small part in helping to fix the game, then I can safely say this was the most important article I’ve ever written. 5 out of 5 stars.
Published Date: November 15th, 2011
Topic: A chronicle of my trading journey from a pack of Zendikar up to an Alpha Mox Sapphire.
Longevity: High.
Best Advice: N/A
Worst Advice: N/A
Overall Rating: I was never really satisfied with this one because I had already written probably 100,000 words about Pack to Power on my Doctor Albert blog. How would I ever squeeze all the awesome trading stories in to one short article? In the end I think I did an okay job summarizing my quest, but I do hope that anyone who liked it enough will go back and read the whole story from the beginning.
I’m giving myself an extra star, however, for trading a pack of Zendikar into a freaking black bordered Mox Sapphire. 3 out of 5 stars.
Published Date: November 23rd, 2011
Topic: A look back at Zendikar block in an effort to find cards that might spike due to eternal or casual play.
Longevity: Medium short. The leap from ‘tired’ set to ‘classic’ set still hasn’t happened for Zendikar, so a lot of these specs are still just as valid as they were a few months ago.
Best Advice: All of my big pickups are slowly rising in value. [card iona, shield of emeria]Iona[/card] is up from $6 to $10. Lotus Cobra is up a buck. Many of the smaller cards are gradually ticking up – in late November, Eldrazi Monument was easy to get at $3 on Channel Fireball. It’s sold out at $3.50 on here now.
Worst Advice: Some of the cards haven’t gone up yet. Jace is still sitting at $60. Creeping Tar Pit is still stuck at $2.50. The change will come, but it hasn’t yet.
Overall Rating: I told people to invest in Zendikar block cards instead of Innistrad cards, and I still stand by it. Those cards were at record lows then, and they’re only just coming off them now. The window is still open, but it won’t be for long. 3 out of 5 stars.
Published Date: December 1st, 2011.
Topic: A look back at all the cards I speculated on in 2011 and how well I did!
Longevity: Short to medium. Again, the card/price info is out of date, but the overall info is still valid.
Best Advice: N/A
Worst Advice: N/A
Overall Rating: This was a very useful article. It’s the financial version of the piece you’re reading now – this one reflects on my good and bad writing decisions while that one took a candid view of my spec choices.
I’ve only really made one spec since that article was published, which was to go all in on Past in Flames. I was right to do so at the time, but I misread the market a bit – I thought it was a long-term gainer, not a short term blip, so I missed my window to sell. I still got the cards below what they’re worth now, so I’m not too upset, but I need them to go up again for the spec to pan out. For the record, I believe that they will. 4 out of 5 stars.
Published Date: December 7th, 2011
Topic: How to build a solid Magic collection on a limited budget.
Longevity: High.
Best Advice: Most of the long-term stuff here about budgeting is fine. I also still think that more people should draft (and rare draft!) at the FNM level.
Worst Advice: One of the hypothetical trade-ups I used as a sample was actually the stone worst. Literally every card in the trade went up by quite a bit. I’m glad it was a fake trade and not a real one!
Overall Rating: This article is probably a 5 out of 5 for the few people who can really benefit for it. For newer players with smaller collections, it’s invaluable. For the majority of you, this is a 2 out of 5 – some good info, but not a must-read.
Published Date: December 13th, 2011
Topic: A mostly humorous look at all of the ‘strictly best’ lands in the history of Magic.
Longevity: Long.
Best Advice: N/A
Worst Advice: N/A
Overall Rating: This was one of those articles that I wrote about half of and then had sitting around in a folder for months on end waiting until I got the stamina together to finish it. Luckily I did, because it turned out great. This is one of my all-time favorites, and is easily the funniest article I’ve done to date. It’s also kind of almost useful. 5 out of 5 stars.
My one regret is that not a single one of you sent Eric “Raging” Levine your Madblind Mountains! No one! For shame!
Published Date: December 21st, 2011.
Topic: A mailbag article where I answer reader questions.
Longevity: Medium.
Best Advice: Past in Flames, one of my sleeper cards, went from $3 to $5. Otherwise, too early to tell.
Worst Advice: Skaab Ruinator is down a buck. Uh, otherwise, too early to tell.
Overall Rating: A solid 3 out of 5 stars, though it was close to 5 out of 5 to write. This was really fun, and I can’t wait to answer more reader questions soon. My favorite question was the one about the playtest card that never saw print – it was cool to even take a look at that thing!
Published Date: December 26th, 2011
Topic: A list of every common and uncommon in Magic that retails for $1 or more.
Longevity: Low for recent sets. Pretty high for the older ones.
Best Advice: N/A
Worst Advice: N/A
Overall Rating: When I wrote this, there were zero Innistrad commons and uncommons that retailed for $1 on Channel Fireball. As of today, there are two: Invisible Stalker and Dissipate. I fully expect a few others (like Delver) to join them on that list eventually.
For what it’s worth, Dark Ascension has six: Diregraf Captain, Immerwolf, Strangleroot Geist, Lingering Souls, Drogskol Captain, and Stromkirk Captain.
I’m giving this a 3 out of 5, but for some of you this will be one of the most useful articles I’ve ever done. I’ve already gone back to it twice while sorting cards!
Published Date: January 5th, 2012
Topic: With Innistrad now yesterday’s news, I take a look at the future heavy hitters from the set.
Longevity: Low.
Best Advice: I NAILED Geist and Garruk this time around! When this article was written, Geist was $16 and Garruk was $20. I called Garruk’s short term at $15 and Geist’s at $25. That’s exactly where they are today. BAM! I also nailed some smaller trends, like Olivia and Skaab Ruinator.
Worst Advice: I thought Past in Flames was still trending upward; it came back down a tic. I still like it long term. I didn’t think we’d see a drop in [card snapcaster mage]Snapcaster Magi[/card], but they’re down $5 to $25 retail.
Overall Rating: It’s a bit early to tell on some of these, but I did quite well on the short term trends. I’ll give it a tentative 3 out of 5 and revisit later on.
Published Date: January 12th, 2012
Topic: A look at all the relevant cards in the now-stable Modern format.
Longevity: Medium low.
Best Advice: That Elspeth, Knight-Errant would be a cornerstone I guess? Everything else was pretty well established.
Worst Advice: Too early to tell.
Overall Rating: A solid 3 out of 5. If you didn’t know much about Modern and wanted to make good trades, this was a good place to start. I don’t think I missed too many cards, though I did underestimate LSV’s favorite U/W tron deck. PV did too, however, so I guess I’m in good company!
A First Look at Dark Ascension
Published Date: January 19th, 2012
Topic: A set review of all the Dark Ascension cards spoiled so far.
Longevity: Low
Best Advice: This is still very much in progress, but I called the across-the-board fall in mythics that weren’t Lich, Huntmaster, and Sorin. I also called Hellrider as a sleeper, and that card has doubled since I reviewed it.
Worst Advice: Not giving the Lich enough credit? I was too high on Grafdigger’s Cage? I really can’t review this too well yet since it’s so recent.
Overall Rating: The jury is still WAY out on this one. Rating: INCOMPLETE.
A Second Look at Dark Ascension
Published Date: January 25th, 2012
Topic: The conclusion of my Dark Ascension set review.
Longevity: Low.
Best Advice: There’s not enough information to say yet.
Worst Advice: Clearly Counterlash isn’t panning out, so I was dead wrong on that one, though I mostly knew that while I was writing it – I just wanted to believe. I also missed Dungeon Geists as a good sleeper I was turned on to literally right before this article ran. Otherwise, it’s too soon to say.
Overall Rating: I’m giving this one an INCOMPLETE as well. We’ll review this review at some point, though!
….
Wow, this review actually took so long it encompassed two full weeks to write. I certainly didn’t expect that going in! Hopefully you found some useful information in the articles you missed, or at least some humor in the picks I got horribly wrong.
I have a few juicy ones planned for the next few months – a look at the relationship between traders and store owners, an article on long-term speculation, when to trade up and when to trade down, a piece on the problem with ‘value’ traders, and – hopefully – my long-promised article on my successful middle school Beanie Baby business!
As always, if you have any questions or article ideas feel free to email me at candres@gmail.com, follow me on Twitter @ChasAndres, or leave word in the comments.
A final note: I have room for one more manager in a Magic player fantasy baseball league on ESPN. It’s full-MLB, 5×5 with no buy in – we’re just playing for fun. Drop me a Twitter DM if you’re interested. I probably won’t be able to get back to everyone because it’s just one spot, but if you’re eager and early you just might get it!
Until next week –
- Chas Andres
