Next week, when the entirety of Dark Ascension is spoiled, you will likely be inundated with dozens of articles pawing through the spoiler in the hopes of figuring out where the ever-evolving Standard metagame will land. Most of the finance guys will put out a primer that includes their favorite prerelease trade targets, sleeper picks to buy in bulk, and overrated mythics to dump fast.
I don’t want to wait that long. I want to talk about Dark Ascension RIGHT NOW!
As of this writing, 9 of the 10 mythic rares have been spoiled and my guess is that most of the ‘juice’ of the set is already out there. It’s true, there are still probably a couple of surprises left, but I doubt any of them are going to have a world-shattering impact on the cards that have already been released.
While I will likely mention a few cards as good pick-up opportunities, I personally am not an advocate of pre-ordering cards. Less than 25% of cards will ever again have a value as high as the pre-sale price, and most will be worth less than half of that price by March. Why take the risk? Wait for better odds. Breakout tournament performances, banned/restricted updates, and organized play calendars are all better things to base mass purchases around than set releases.
Of course, you can’t stay out of the Dark Ascension market altogether. These are the cards that people are going to want, and not having them is going to make it difficult to make any trading headway for the next month or so.
Further, Dark Ascension will function like a third set in terms of draft. I know I’ve mentioned this every week so far, but it cannot be understated. Very few packs of this are going to be opened compared to a normal second set, meaning that the value ceiling on these cards is very high. Right around the time Avacyn Restored comes out, make sure to purchase or trade for all the DA cards you think you’re going to need. They’ll only go up from there.
Mythic Rares
Sorin, Lord of Innistrad
The first thing to look for with Planeswalkers is the ability to protect them. Sorin’s plus-one gives you that.
The second thing to look for is an ability to affect the board immediately. Sorin’s second ability provides this, and I feel like ‘make a dude, make an emblem, make a second emblem’ will be a common line of play a couple weeks from now.
Sorin also has a very powerful third ability that will probably see play mostly in cube, as the Standard decks he fits in would probably rather just make emblems. Of course, the times this goes off will likely be met with quick concessions.
The rub against Sorin is his casting cost. At 2WB, you can’t just shove him into any deck that would have him. Will we see WB tokens emerge? GWb humans? That question is for greater deck-building minds than mine.
Sorin compares most clearly to Ajani Vengeant, a very powerful and useful Planeswalker in his day. Price-wise that does us very little good, since Ajani was from a big set and had a prerelease promo. Still, Vengeant was in the double-digits for a while during his Standard-legal run.
$50 seems high to me, but $35 seems reasonable as a small set chase mythic. Of course, that counts on his deck being teir-1 playable. If it isn’t, expect a drop to $20 much like Tezzeret, Agent of Bolas (who is $15, but is in a set that was opened more.)
Other Affected Cards:
Expect a jump in demand for Isolated Chapel, which might hit $10 if Sorin is awesome. Geist-Honored Monk seems good in the deck too, as does Champion of the Parish and the other white cards from the humans deck. Expect Intangible Virtue to trade at $1 at some point this season, too.
Current Price: $50
Future Price: $35
Havengul Lich
As a casual player, I am in love with this card. He fits wonderfully with Snapcaster Mage, allowing you access to re-play pretty much anything in your graveyard over again. In Commander, he’s going to be a house, and I love that you can go off with him immediately if you have enough mana. I just wish he could be your general.
In Standard constructed, though, I’m just not seeing him as a tier-1 playable. Blue black decks aren’t going to be aggro or midrange – they’re going to be straight-up control. And for control finishers, there are lots of things better than this. Grave Titan and Frost Titan only cost one mana more, and they are rarely played these days. Consecrated Sphinx is only one mana more, and that gives you much more reliable card advantage and a better body.
I would be on board if the Lich gave you more overwhelming card advantage, was part of a game-winning combo, or protected itself, but I’m just not seeing it right now.
Other Affected Cards:
This will continue to cement zombies as a popular casual tribe, especially in Commander. Older must-have zombies (Zombie Master, Undead Warchief, etc.) will continue to rise in price.
Current Price: $15
Future Price: $6
Huntmaster of the Fells
This, on the other hand, is a heck of a card.
For your 4 mana investment, you immediately get 4 power worth of threat and 2 life. Then, if you want to skip a turn playing spells, you can upgrade to 6 power worth of threat and 4 damage worth of burn – which is basically like playing a spell, right?
Flipping the thing back just keeps the train rolling, and Avacyn help your opponent if THEY can’t cast a spell at any point.
It’s true that the card costs both red and green to cast, but it seems like an amazing card in some sort of RUG build. While Sorin is a flagship, I expect we might see the Huntmaster in a variety of different decks.
Other Affected Cards:
Daybreak Ranger! No, I’m actually serious this time! These two seem like best buds. Mayor of Avabruck is clearly nuts in this kind of deck too, and is probably poised for a gain.
Current Price: $15
Future Price: $18
Mikaeus, the Unhallowed
One of the things I really love about the set design in Dark Ascension is that all of the ‘chase’ mythics are super powerful but hard to cast. If you want to play with them, you can’t just jam them in any deck and hope for the best. This should mostly prevent tier-1 decks running multiple DA chase mythics from happening.
Dark Mikaeus continues that trend. At 3BBB, he’s quite intimidating to slam onto the board. Of course, what he does is absurd, so you can’t really blame him for costing so much.
Mikaeus seems perfectly positioned as the finisher in some sort of W/B humans deck. He’s an evasive finisher all by himself, for one. He also provides protection and power for your army. Third, any other humans deck is stopped cold if they don’t have a removal spell ready to go.
Given all of these different things, Mikaeus is very hard to evaluate. At 3BBB, though, I just don’t know how much better he is than one of the titans. I expect his price to drop initially, though if the titans rotate, (and they should), he could experience a heck of a resurgence next fall.
Even if Mikaeus is played, he will be a 2 or 3-of in one deck. That should keep him safely in the $5-$6 range.
Other Affected Cards:
Really, all the other Standard-playable humans could go up or down depending on whether or not this guy sees play and whether or not he sees play with other humans or just against them. This also may be run with Sorin, so keep an eye on the W/B decks early on.
Current Price: $8
Future Price: $5-$6
Drogskol Reaver
Seven mana is very many mana. That’s why I wrongly picked Elesh Norn to go down in price, a prediction I couldn’t have gotten more wrong.
Drogskol Reaver is most comparable (in Standard at least) to Consecrated Sphinx and [card elesh norn, grand cenobite]Elesh Norn[/card], so let’s start there. Both of those cards spent a number of weeks in the $15 range – does the Reaver have a shot to be there as well?
Of the three, Reaver has the worst mana cost. 5WU is worse than both 5WW and 4UU, though not by a ton.
Of the three, Drogskol Reaver hits the hardest. Sphinx and Norn hit for 4 apiece, whereas an unblocked Reaver gets in for six.
Consecrated Sphinx has the best draw engine. Whether you attack, block, or neither, Sphinx gets you at least two cards a turn. Drogskol Reaver gets you two cards if you successfully hit your opponent and one card every time it gets into a battle with another dude.
Elesh Norn does the most to affect the board. Against many decks, it’s basically a game-over wrath that they can’t recover from while also giving you an alpha strike. Reaver will probably gain you some life and a card or two one way or another, but rarely will he just end the game.
At the end of the day, Drogskol Reaver feels like a poor hybrid of the two and is less effective than both. I don’t think he’ll be a major player going forward.
Other Affected Cards:
None.
Current Price: $7
Future Price: $3-$4
Falkenrath Aristocrat
In years past, this could have been the chase rare of the set. The power creep on creatures over the past 3-4 years is positively unreal.
The main rub with this card is that I’m not sure a R/B deck in need of a 4/1 hasted flyer is going to want some durdly humans around to sacrifice. If the right enabler is printed, sure. Otherwise, what, it goes in a W/B/r build or something? Without humans, the card isn’t all that good. If you DO have one, though, it makes your opponents’ blocks super awkward and you’re liable to sneak in quite a bit of damage before they will be able to stabilize.
If this card finds a home, I can see it being in the $10-$12 range without much problem. If it doesn’t, it’s more of a $4-$5 mythic that will hold value simply due to its creature type. I’m betting on the latter, though the former wouldn’t surprise me.
Other Affected Cards:
Grim Lavamancer, Hero of Oxid Ridge, Instigator Gang, Manic Vandal, Reckless Waif, and Stormblood Berserker are the current crop of R/B Standard playable humans. I don’t really want to sac any of ‘em except maybe the Vandal, but I could potentially see this card fitting in some sort of brew with Lavamancer in the future if the right enablers were printed.
Current Price: $7
Future Price: $4-$5
Vorapede
The trample is nice on this guy, because otherwise he’d get completely shut down by tokens, but I think he’s probably lifelink or haste instead of vigilance away from being a large player in this year’s standard.
Even at one mana less, I’d just rather play Wurmcoil Engine than this. I could see it being awesome in concert with the Engine in a Birthing Pod deck, but otherwise I’m just not sure it’s enough in a titan-based world.
Other Affected Cards:
Birthing Pod perhaps?
Current Price: $6
Future Price: $3
Beguiler of Wills
A 1/1 for 5 that doesn’t nothing for a turn and nothing by itself, this is pretty clearly a bulk mythic. I’m not going to try and tell you otherwise.
That said, this is one of the cards in the set I am most excited about for Commander. It doesn’t go into every deck, true, but in something like Momir Vig I am positively salivating for this card. The art is awesome too, and I bet she’ll look spectacular in foil. I think there’s a small play there, and I plan on picking up several foil copies of this as soon as it is available.
Other Affected Cards:
None.
Current Price: $2
Future Price: $1
Moonveil Dragon
The first time I face this card in draft, I will want to stab it with a rusty spork. It’s just absurd, especially because it can just sit back while you win with whatever else you have lying around the board.
Pick up foils on the cheap for Kalia decks in Commander, but it has been a long time since large Dragons like this were constructed playable.
Other Affected Cards:
None.
Current Price: $2
Future Price: $1
Rares
Grafdigger’s Cage
Let’s begin with the elephant in the room.
As of this writing, Grafdigger’s Cage isn’t for sale yet on Channel Fireball. It was $8 this morning on Star City Games, and is now sold out there at $10. On eBay, the cheapest copies are running $11 to ‘Buy it Now,’ so it seems like the current retail price for the card is around $15.
As we’ve learned from cards like Inkmoth Nexus and Snapcaster Mage, this is a price that it is realistic for a non-mythic rare to hold if there is enough demand.
In terms of graveyard hate, it remains to be seen where Grafdigger’s Cage falls on the spectrum. It certainly isn’t unequivocally the best – the fact that Nihil Spellbomb draws you a card and Leyline of the Void dodges countermagic cannot be ignored. When it hits play, though, it probably has the best effect providing you aren’t interacting with the ‘yard yourself. Reanimator decks certainly can’t just play though the first one like they can with Tormod’s Crypt.
This card compares favorably to things like Null Rod, Pithing Needle, and Chalice of the Void in terms of hate cards that will likely see quite a bit of play in every format. I have no doubt that the Cage will rock Vintage and Legacy as well as Standard and Modern.
The Cage feels very Mental Misstep-y to me in terms of Wizards trying to prevent people from playing games that they don’t consider “real Magic.” There’s a careful balance here, in that you don’t want the game to just become about reanimating a [card jin-gitaxias, core augur]Jin-Gitaxias[/card] but you also don’t want every format to just be a pile of Delvers. I was personally bummed when I saw this card, because I love reanimation and I’m already sick of freaking Delver of Secrets, but that’s a personal thing. Some people probably love the fact that Magic is just mid-range fish decks now.
In terms of value, a lot of people are saying that this card will fall into the $3-$4 range because sideboard/hate cards rarely hold a high value for long. I respectfully disagree. In terms of the card’s playability and the amount of this set that will be opened, Grafdigger’s Cage is most similar to Pithing Needle back when Saviors of Kamigawa was the only set the card was printed in. Even back then it was a $20-$25 card, meaning it was the most valuable card in Standard for a reasonable amount of time.
I don’t think the Cage will hit $25, but maintaining a retail value of $15 is certainly not out of the question.
Just make sure you keep watching out for Dredge and Reanimator decks in Legacy. So many people are just going to jam a set of these in their sideboards and not even bother to test those matchups, assuming that they’ve successfully hated those decks out of the format. Yeah, not gonna be that easy.
Other Affected Cards:
Pretty much every card ever, depending on how much play the Cage sees. Will this finally tank the price of Snapcaster? Will it raise the price of Trinket Mage? Will it make Tezzeret, Agent of Bolas an awesome deck again? Will it prevent self-mill Gravecrawler and/or Splinterfright shenanigans from ever making the scene? And that’s just in Standard!
Keep an eye on all the Dredge/Reanimator cards in Legacy as well as Past in Flames/storm in Modern as well.
Current Price: Unlisted on CFB
Future Price: $12-15
Gravecrawler
People sure were more exited about this dude before Grafdigger’s Cage, weren’t they?
This is an engine, pure and simple, and it seems really abusable with the right tools. It’s also honestly not bad as an aggressive one-drop in a deck that simply wants to keep casting zombies as quickly as possible, engine be damned. Both Johnny and Spike should be excited about this guy.
Part of being smart is knowing your weaknesses, and I still haven’t made up my mind about whether this is a $3 card or a $10 card. I don’t think it’s a $5 card – it’s either awesome or it isn’t – and the current price is just a way for everyone to hedge their bets.
I’m going to predict moderate growth for this little zombie, but keep an eye on it. If it starts to produce, it could hit double digits overnight.
Other Affected Cards:
Grimgrin, Corpse-Born is one possible combo piece with this guy, though I bet that’ll stay firmly in the casual realm. Look for people to use this with Ashnod’s Altar a lot in Commander, too.
Current Price: $5
Future Price: $7
Thalia, Guardian of Thraben
Hooray! Yet another card encouraging us to play “real Magic.”
I wish Thalia weren’t legendary. Having a few of these going at once in your aggro deck would be freaking awesome. As is, you’re probably limited to running 2 or maybe 3 because you can’t risk clogging up your hand.
I honestly think people might be sleeping on Thalia a little. It’s been a while since a hate bear has been worth some money, and Thalia’s pedigree (Glowrider, Thorn of Amethyst) isn’t filled with cards that have made a splash in tons of formats. She’ll certainly be a Vintage staple, but that only matters for the ten or so people who still actually play Vintage. What about every other format?
I personally think that Wizards’ has finally found the sweet spot for this type of effect. A 2/1 for 2 is a reasonable body to have a very strong ability, and Thalia is perfectly capable of slowing opponents down by a turn, which is backbreaking in a deck mostly made up of creatures. I think Thalia will see play in all formats, though not being a 4-of will hurt her price.
She may drop before she goes up, and Thalia to me has the markings of a card that trades for $2-$3 while in Standard, but ends up being one of the 5-7 most valuable cards in the set years down the line. I’ll be picking up a set sooner rather than later.
Other Affected Cards:
No current decks in Standard run a high enough percentage of creatures to abuse this. We’ll have to see if that changes.
Current Price: $3.80
Future Price: $3 with long-term upside.
Vault of the Archangel
I am still in love with every single one of the utility lands in this block. This one is just stupidly good, and along with Sorin I predict we’re going to see an awesome black/white tokens deck showing up in Standard. Heck, maybe even in Modern.
I love this card as a long-term casual gainer as well as a Standard staple.
Other Affected Cards:
While we’re on the topic of the tokens deck, I wouldn’t be surprised if Hero of Bladehold ends up in even more demand. I would also consider investing in Windbrisk Heights for a possible port to Modern.
Current Price: $2.50
Future Price: $5
Thraben Doomsayer
The current price of $2 seems right on the money for this. It’s good, playable as a support card in one archetype, and will be very casually popular. This is the sort of card that would be at $1-$2 forever if it were in Innistrad, but may one day command a casual premium because it’s in a less-opened set.
Other Affected Cards:
Again, all the humans/tokens stuff
Current Price: $2
Future Price: $2
Wolfbitten Captive//Krallenhorde Killer
I’m not sure you want to spend too much of your time sitting around and activating this, but there are two things that you can’t ignore:
1) This is a one-drop with a TON of upside. Like, the most upside since…what? Figure of Destiny?
2) You need to do something the turn you’re waiting for your Huntmaster to flip.
I think people are sleeping on the werewolves a bit since most of the ones in Innistrad weren’t great. This batch seems much more powerful to me.
Other Affected Cards:
Huntmaster, Daybreak Ranger, Mayor of Avabruck.
Current Price: $1.80
Future Price: $3
Dollar or Less Rares
Here are some quick thoughts on the low value rares you are likely to open too many of:
• Ghoultree Timmies are still a psychographic, and 10/10s are big. This card doesn’t do anything beyond that, though. BULK RARE.
• Hellrider This card seems kind of absurd to me. 4 for a 3/3 haste is a fine man, and this gives red mages a heck of a clock if they have any pressure going at all. You kind of have to block it, and even when you do you’re taking a ton to the dome. $2-$3 Standard Playable.
• Increasing Confusion Casual players LOVE their mill spells. This will likely be $1 while the set is in print and will rise after that. Pick up foils. $1-$2, good long-term bet.
• Increasing Devotion It’s better than Conqueror’s Pledge. A solid $1 card that might secretly be constructed playable. $1-$2 card.
• Predator Ooze The triple-green casting cost seems like a deal-breaker for everyone. Indestructibility is nice, but Commander has too many wrath effects for this to be a format staple. BULK RARE.
• Mondronen Shaman//Tovolar’s Magehunter 3/2s for 4 that don’t do anything until someone plays a spell aren’t very good. BULK RARE.
• Ravenous Demon//Archdemon of Greed I adore the fact that they printed a ‘better’ Lord of the Pit for the nostalgic who wants to re-live the glory days of their casual Breeding Pit/Lord of the Pit deck. For the rest of us, though, this is just another BULK RARE.
• Séance This is a really fun card, and people are going to play it in fun/casual decks with lots of come into play creatures and maybe a Birthing Pod or two. That said, it’s still gonna be a BULK RARE.
• Zombie Apocalypse I don’t care that it’s under a buck now, such a sweet, fun, evocative card should never be worth less than a dollar. Pick up foils for zombie tribal fans. $1 card.
• Feed the Pack Six mana AND you have to sac a ton of guys? No thanks. BULK RARE.
• Fiend of the Shadows This card seems really fun in a casual vamp deck. It won’t sniff tournament play, but it should be worth $1 at some point in the mid-to-late future. $1 card.
• Flayer of the Hatebound I really wanted to see an Undying creature with a comes-into-play ability, and this was the closest we got. This guy wishes he was Hellrider. BULK RARE.
• Jar of Eyeballs Expect foils to be worth more than they should just because it’s a FREAKING JAR OF EYEBALLS. People will play this card as a comedy option, but that’s about it. SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN BULK BECAUSE IT’S A GODDAMNED JAR OF EYEBALLS.
That’s all I know about Dark Ascension so far! Check back in a couple of months as I sheepishly review my picks and see how wrong I was.
- Chas Andres
