Rishadan Pawnshop #16 ÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â‚¬Å“ Why Baneslayer Flies So High

November 4, 2009 |

Rishadan Pawnshop #16 – Why Baneslayer Flies So High

Riki has been suggesting I write an article about Baneslayer Angel for a while. I always thought that it was in interesting card and definitely worth a mention, but not a whole article. I mean what would I really say?

"Baneslayer is worth a lot.

The end."

Not good enough? Ya, I didn't think so either. So I guess we can talk a little bit about why it's worth so much. Is that something you might be interested in?

"Supply and demand.

The end."

Not good enough yet? Geez, what does it take to satisfy you people? I guess supply and demand, though a correct answer, doesn't sufficiently explain why.

Let's go back. Way back. Back into time"¦ M10 released over the summer to a ton of hype. Everyone was talking about how good the new duals were. Great Sable Stag, the faerie killer, and Silence, Orim's Chant reincarnate, were the huge hype cards of the time. Open the Vaults and Time Warp fueled a brand new combo deck. Ball Lightning, Darksteel Colossus and the full cycle of Lorwyn planeswalkers were back. All of the hype and buzz that surrounded these cards left one card a bit in the shadows. A 5/5 flying, lifelinked, first striker with protection from both demons and dragons. What's not to like?

Well, it's still just a dude. And it's a white card. And it just seems really gimmicky. Seriously, the only reason it's worth anything now is because it's an angel and it's mythic. I'll worry about picking them up later if they start to go up. Whether it be due to buzz surrounding other cards or doubts about how good Baneslayer really was, initial demand for the card was low. Because demand was low initially, it was flying well below the "hype radar" for a while.

In the months following, M10 should have flooded the market so all the hyped cards would "stabilize" and reach their correct price. However, as we all remember, there was a drought over the summer.

As it turns out, this was a calculated stroke by Wizards of the Coast. Starting with M10, WoTC would be much more miserly with their new set allocations. Wonder why Zendikar seemed shorted too? Ya, that's why. Gone are the days when internet re-sellers could order off of WoTC on "credit", quick flip their boxes on eBay and pay their debt back with a cool profit in pocket. Preference would now be given to brick and mortar stores, especially stores that paid cash up front. Shortening the initial supply and cutting out the internet resellers would allow the local mom and pop stores to sell their product at full MSRP. In addition, WoTC would now have a better forecast on how much of a new set they should actually print in the months following, since they get to see how large (or small) the demand is. Gone also are the days when WoTC is stuck with large supplies of product in their warehouses (*ahem* Coldsnap *ahem* Alara Reborn).

What do these shortages have to do with Baneslayer Angel? Normally this new allocation strategy from WoTC wouldn't be a big deal with a Core Set. But this time it was. Why? Because M10 wasn't like the old Core Sets. M10 had new cards and Baneslayer Angel was one of them. In the past, shorting a Core Set would not have been a problem because players would be able to just pick up the reprinted card from an older version and still be fine. But because Baneslayer Angel was new, you could only get it from M10. The problem was that, for several months, M10 was extremely difficult to get. The initial supply of Baneslayer Angels was low. And despite the "low" initial demand, prices began to rise.

Eventually, the shortages wore off and there was light at the end of the tunnel. The rising Baneslayer began to level off toward the end of September and middle of October. Superstars/ Channelfireball even had a sale on Baneslayer. $25! What a steal! This point in time coincided with another event that marked the last time you would ever see a "cheap" Baneslayer Angel, probably for a long time. That event was the release of Zendikar.

The moment Zendikar officially released, M10 became a complete afterthought. Fetchlands. Lotus Cobra. Priceless treasures. I want them all! The price began to rise once again, but this time at a bit more rapid pace. While Baneslayer increased only a few dollars from September to October (from around $22 to 25) the price soared more than $15 from the beginning of October to today (from around $25 to a current price pushing $40). What happened?

The steady stream of M10 rares that began to flow into the market after the initial shortage had been almost completely cut off. No one wanted to purchase or rip M10, let alone draft it. M10 had been replaced. The initial short supply, which started to fill out with the normal influx of product, had been completely halted. Zendikar was the new girl and M10 was Jennifer Aniston.

It's not that no one opened any M10 at all. Don't be ridiculous. I'm sure a few packs were opened since Zendikar came out"¦ I mean, how many did you open? None? Hmm"¦ Ya, me neither.

In the meantime, as always happens when new sets drop, people began to build decks. While Jund quickly became the deck of choice, players ramping into Baneslayer Angel or choosing her as their finisher of choice in some random control style build were not far behind. Then a few weeks later, some guy named Brian Kibler apparently won an Extended Pro Tour rocking Baneslayers in the maindeck. Go figure.

As would be expected, the demand for Baneslayers began to increase. People needed them not just for Standard, but for Extended as well. All of this happened on a much quicker, more extreme scale on Magic Online (read this article for the relevance). Once Zendikar was released, players quit drafting M10. Prices for fetchlands on MTGO dropped significantly over the following weeks while in less than two weeks, Baneslayer more than doubled in price from around 20 tickets to now almost 50.

A low initial supply that suddenly got cut off. A low initial demand that suddenly increased. And that is how Baneslayer Angel crept up from a card that started off less than $15 and is now pushing $40.

"Baneslayer Angel – Luis says it's good, so who am I to argue? Hahaha, but seriously, Baneslayer Angel is a very solid card with great abilities and a bargain mana cost. The fact that it's mythic will definitely push the price up, but if it found a competitive deck for a home, then I could see her flying high past $15 (they are currently $12-13)."

From July 9, 2009. Now I'd hate to say I told you so, but Luis might not. The question now is, if you need Baneslayers, what can you do? *shaking Magic 8-ball* "¦ Outlook not so good. Yikes.

I don't see any reasons in the foreseeable future why Baneslayer Angel would go down in price. Why? If supply and demand is the reason why the price got this way in the first place, there must be a change in supply, demand, or something that affects the supply/demand curves in order for the price to change, right? Right.

If thousands and thousands of people all of a sudden read this article and decide to change their minds and switch from Zendikar draft to M10 draft and buy M10 product instead of Zendikar product, we could do a little to change the supply. In addition, Wizards deciding to release Baneslayer Angel as a wide release promo card for something like FNM or "States" (or whatever they're calling it nowadays) would help on the supply side. However, we all know neither of those are likely to happen. So count supply out.

If all of a sudden, everyone said, "Let's boycott Baneslayer Angel and play Sphinx of Jwar Isle instead!" then that would definitely change the demand (and given the amount of Jund around, that might not be the worst idea!) That could happen, but I wouldn't count on it just yet. On a side note, you may want to pick up Sphinx of Jwar Isle just in case. For now though, count demand out too.

Shifts in the demand or supply curves would take at least two class sessions in Econ 102 to explain, but for the sake of the article we can say the following. A shift in the demand curve resulting in a lower priced Baneslayer would happen if there was demand for a comparable card at a lower price (ie. The effect of a substitute) or the deck that ran Baneslayer was all of a sudden horrible (ie. The effect of complements). The problem is, Baneslayer trumps all substitutes (Sphinx, Broodmate, etc.) Also, "the deck" won't make Baneslayer bad because Baneslayer is what makes "the deck" good. Whether it be that Naya Lotus Angel deck, Kibler Zoo, or random W/x/x Baneslayer control, Baneslayer is the heart of the deck. A shift in the supply curve would be the result of all dealers across the globe being able to purchase Baneslayer at an equally low price. If somehow, magically (pun intended), WoTC had a supply of Baneslayers and sold them to stores for $5 each, the stores' costs would be lower and a shift in supply would occur.

Long story short, it doesn't look like there is any reason Baneslayer Angel would be coming down in price any time soon. If the worst case scenario of your investment is that you break even in the end and the best case scenario is you gain a significant percentage, I would say invest. That means you should probably get your Baneslayers now unless you are willing to risk paying the higher price later (which seems very likely). If you don't need or don't want Baneslayers now, pray you don't need them down the road (or pray that Baneslayer 2.0 comes out in Worldwake).

I hope this little lesson in history/ economics was useful. Next week we will take a glance at some more Standard results and see what decks can give you the most bang for your buck! Thanks for stopping by the shop!

Peace
Jeremy Fuentes