FFfreak Friday – Preparing for Release Week
Posted by Brad Nelson
September 10, 2009 | 
31 comments
FFfreak Friday – Preparing for Release Week
by Brad Nelson
It's that time again, when three sets say goodbye, one says hello and we have to look at a very small Standard format once again. This is an exciting time to be playing. We get to look at Standard with new eyes of invention and creativity. No more Bitterblossoms, [card Austere Command]Commands[/card], or [card Spectral Procession]Spectrals[/card]. It's time for Zendikar!
I could go into my favorite cards from Zendikar, but that would mean I can't talk about MTGO. Since I eat, sleep, and breathe Magic Online, I just couldn't do that.
Over the many years I've played in release events online, I've learned the most profitable approaches. There is a lot of money to be made on a new set if you follow a tight schedule.
In the first week of releases online, almost everyone is playing Limited, which means it's a great time to be playing in any Limited tournaments. With the amount of people playing, the average level of play skill is at its weakest. It is much easier to have the highest profits during these times. I call these release days "Christmas mornings 2-5."
There are 4 different types of Limited tournaments you should play:
4 Round 16 Player Queues
These tournaments supply the best value for time and convenience. They only take about 2.5 – 3.5 hours to complete and have a very good prize payout: 15 packs for 4-0, 10 for 3-1, and 3 for 2-2. This is a great value for your initial 6 pack and 2 ticket entry fee. It is very easy to at least 3-1 in these pods, netting a profit.
In general, this is where play skill is at its weakest. This makes it easier to 4-0 without any dependency on your Sealed pool.
The way to make this most profitable is to always be playing in 2 of these events when you have the time. After round 1 is finished, start up another Sealed if you are not the last round to finish. I don't have a problem when playing two rounds at a time, but I dislike having to play and build at the same time.
Premier Event Sealed
These tournaments fire at specific times. This means that you have to wait for a specific tournament to fire. I generally like to play on my own schedule during release weekends and these tournaments hinder that. Rounds tend to take longer, with so many more people playing in them, and the overall tournament can take up to 10 hours to complete.
The other problem is that even though the payout is strictly higher (40 packs for first, 30 for second, 15 for third and fourth, and 10 for fifth to eighth), It's more difficult to top 8 consistently and make the profit. The EV is much lower in this tournament then it is in 4-round Swiss tournaments.
64-Man Draft Challenge
This is another premier event held during release week. These tend to fill up hours before the event fires, so you have to sign up about 6 hours in advance. These are two single-elimination drafts, where first place is worth 20 packs. The investment is the same as a draft and the payout can potentially be higher.
If you tend to play 8-4s, the payout is lower until you win the first round of the second draft. To make a higher profit then in an 8-4, you have to make top 4 or better. This is more difficult because the competition tends to be much higher in these events. They are a great way to get to draft twice with only one draft set, but other than that they don't help the overall bankroll.
Draft
This is the last and probably the most-played event during release week. This is where you will find most people spending their tickets. It depends what you want out of the experience to justify your actions.
Are you a rare drafter? I used to not be a rare drafter in the past. Why would I take the three-ticket rare when there is an Overrun for my green deck?
I've changed my thinking since I learned a few tricks from the best MTGO drafter alive. Aceman022 is who I've gone to for years to help me get my Limited game to where it is today. He is known for being frustrated that he couldn’t get into another team draft because his top 8 match of the Grand Prix was about to begin. Then he remembered that he could draft between the quarters and semis, so he was happy again.
This is what he says about drafting release events:
"Pick rares slightly higher. Not only are they worth more, they are also unexpected during games. Be aware of the 0.5 – 2 ticket cards in the format. These are under most drafters’ radar and you can pick them up late, and even table them.
"Don’t assume your good decks will win and your bad decks will lose. It’s not worth it to take an on color game-winner (Overrun) over a money card ([card Jace Beleren]Jace[/card]) because you think it will turn your deck into a winning deck. A single card won’t improve your chances of winning very much.
"Similarly, even if you rare-drafted the whole way and have a terrible 4 color, 21 land decks, play it out. Your chances are much higher than you think."
Rare-drafting is essential when trying to make the highest profit during release week. All the cards are worth so much more then they will be in a few weeks, so snatching up a few during a draft can pay for the event. It is easier to win with awkward decks during release week as well, since the overall quality of the players is lower. It is very hard to get behind this mindset if you have never done it before.
There was a problem I had with this kind of draft strategy in the beginning; I would pick and choose when I would take money cards depending on how my deck looked. Don't fall into this trap! It is an all or nothing ordeal. Either you don't take a single card for cash value or you try to take them all. This also tends to be a lot of fun when you draft $30 worth of cards and still win the draft with your very odd-looking deck.
Don't think rare-drafting is a must, however, because it is not for everyone. Rare-drafting is very different from regular drafting. They both have pros and cons. Pure profit is the only motive for the rare-drafter. If your goal is to win every draft, don't pursue this strategy – you will only be disappointed.
Once you start playing in some release events, it's very important to dump all the extra cards you took – any and all commons, uncommons, and rares you have that vendors are buying. It's smart to sell any excess packs you have as well, because singles and packs are at their highest price in the first few weeks after the release.
The forces of supply and demand is at their peak during a release online. Many people want to play Limited, which drives up the cost of packs and makes them worth more in the classifieds than at the shops. Singles also cost more than they should because people have not opened enough product.
Even though not as many people are getting into Constructed during this time, demand will continue to outstrip supply for several days.
This means selling all of your cards is important right away when the prices are still high. After a few weeks of people playing Limited, prices tend to drop dramatically.
This is also true with packs. Once there is a surplus of packs in the market, the price on them will go down. People who horded packs will see their overall worth online drop without even knowing it right away. The market works very fast. You go to sleep when a pack is with worth 4.5 and when you wake up the next day they are only worth 4 or 3.8. Getting rid of everything extra is very important!
The other way to make a small fortune during release week involves Contructed. I talked about SSB last week and how it is a great way to get started with Magic Online, but this is not the case during release weeks.
It is a great time to play Standard because the metagame online is much like the one people have played since the "true" release of the set. The metagame involves a lot of decks that pros have talked about and decks that have won big tournaments. This is a great time to start grinding out a really good deck.
Most people playing Standard at this time are trying out new things and testing new archetypes. This is when you get to prey on them with more aggressive strategies. Whenever a format is new off line, the most aggressive decks tend to do the best right away. This is very true online as well, even though the format isn't technically new anymore.
My goal during this time is different from most people: win as many packs as possible. Then I take those packs and sell them right away. I tend to grind a lot because it is the best money-making time online.
I find the most aggressive strategy that tries to end the game as fast as possible with very little interaction. Then I play in as many 8-mans at the same time as I can. It can be very grueling, but the format is not as complex as it is right now in Standard. I don't think I could get away with playing two games at the same time in current Standard and play them both to the best of my ability.
I don't know what that deck will be yet without seeing Zendikar, but I'm guessing it will have Bloodbraid Elf in it.
There are other ways to approach the release weekends, obviously. I'm just putting out the most profitable method. Although I lose out on some of the more fun experiences I could have otherwise, I would rather take a break from perfecting my game and spend it making the cash monies.
RUN, COWARDLY FISHIES
Scott Barrentine (AthosTheMusketeer on MTGO) not only won the Dallas 5K, but then 8-0'd the PTQ the next day before dropping. He piloted fish for two days to great finishes.
He also is competing to win POY Classic on Magic Online. What deck is he using in that format? Obviously he pilots the Fishies. I talked to him for a while about the 5K and the upcoming 5K he is going play.
Here's his list:
This is what he had to say:
"I have always played Merfolk because the aggro-control strategy usually follows the game plan that makes the most sense to me. Lay guys, leave counter mana up once you have board advantage, and always look ahead to dealing 20 points of damage.
"The advantage of Merfolk over other Cryptic Command [deck]s, relatively aggro-controllish decks like Fae, Grixis control, and U/W variations is the intensely powerful synergy of the creature base, and of course the hugely important lords: Merrow Reejerey and Sygg, River Guide (Merfolk Sovereign intentionally not mentioned).
"Most games tend to play out the same way: every merfolk is either a Time Walk because they used a removal spell on it and thus usually cannot lay many threats, or board presence. Only a few of the power cards need to be played for Merfolk to be have enough of a board presence to overwhelm bigger, less synergistic creatures – and if Merfolk is behind on board it might not matter because that means the opponent hasn’t been using removal spells and are thus prime to be Cryptic Commanded out of the game.
"Untapping with six lands and a Sygg, River Guide in play probably has a better win percentage than turn-two Bitterblossom. All decks tend to run out of removal spells before Merfolk runs out of power creatures, especially with Reveillark against Bituminous Blast decks.
"For those who might choose to run Merfolk, I don’t recommend picking up the deck and playing it unless you’re the kind of person who can do that. The game plan is very linear and frequently uncomplicated, but the board synergy and working yourself into a position to win the game usually requires very tight play, excepting of course the wonderful Merfolk combo nut-draws that deliver free game wins throughout the day.
"The decklist is very tight, as I came to two cards off Thaler’s maindeck (2 [card Harms Way]Harm’s Way[/card] instead of 2 Reveillark) and I certainly used every sideboard card both days. Sideboarding is relatively easy. Usually Harm’s Way, Reveillark, [card Sages Dousing]Sage’s [/card]Dousing, and Stonybrook Banneret get pulled for the appropriate hate cards. I can never cut Sleep from my sideboard because I can’t stand losing to Kithkin/Elfball diehards and those matchups seem tough without it. Four [card Burrenton Forge-Tender]Forge-Tenders[/card] is necessary for the red matchup. Glen Elendra Archmage has been helpful shoring up all the Cruel Ultimatum matches and Meddling Mage is just a superb card against many more ‘powerful’ strategies, coming in against any deck that has enough maindeck cards you don’t want to see and always banning the scariest card for you (okay, okay – [card Volcanic Fallout]Fallout[/card]. But sometimes other cards. Maelstrom Pulse is incredibly powerful against good Merfolk draws)."
Thanks again for all your support and I hope to see you all online when Zendikar releases!
Brad Nelson
FFfreaK on MTGO
Mastersshake@yahoo.com
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About This Author
Brad Nelson
Brad got his start on Magic Online, but recently has been dominating live events with equal ease. He won Grand Prix DC 2010, and followed that up a week later with a Top 8 finish at Pro Tour San Juan. He also made Top 8 at US Nationals 2009 and&hellip
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Kelly B Reid says: September 10, 2009 @ 9:10 pm
Sweet article. This is the kind of MTGO content I wish Quiet Speculation could cover. I just don’t know enough about MTGO do do it, but I’ll refer people your way when they ask. Thanks a ton for the info, and good work.
Daryl says: September 10, 2009 @ 9:20 pm
Nice article Brad!
I’m really new to MTGO and don’t quite understand how to get my bankroll going, but this really helps.
Burger King says: September 10, 2009 @ 9:33 pm
Really enjoyed the article. Thanks for the tips.
Trackback MTGBattlefield says: September 10, 2009 @ 9:49 pm
FFfreak Friday – Preparing for Release Week…
Your story has been summoned to the battlefield – Trackback from MTGBattlefield…
Cle says: September 10, 2009 @ 9:57 pm
somebody forgot to close an italic bracket
Aceman says: September 10, 2009 @ 10:23 pm
Good read. Seems like it got stuck in Italics somewhere though…
sneakattackkid says: September 10, 2009 @ 10:25 pm
With the limited part the 4 round 16person queues are the best esp. when multiqueueing. With the premier events you forgot the 5 packs for t16 which is going to be break even and the 3 for t32 which is meh. The break even does increase the EV slightly and enough to be relevant. The 64 person drafts are essentially 8+ -4-2-2′es. If you needed to you could rare draft 10+ in the second draft easily. With drafts I always thought the general rule for rare drafting was 2+ auto 1-2 unless utter bomb + haven’t been rare drafting already. Cons is easy, however sometimes the premium in the singles you’re buying isn’t worth it. BB elfs went for 3 during the early part of the release and you don’t have the PE’s to bank 36 off of.
Ryan says: September 10, 2009 @ 10:50 pm
Great article, I like the interview style updates from various magic players. If you can, please include this in future articles.
Regarding the MODO content, this stuff comes a bit late. Med3 has been out since wednesday and the card value has already dropped significantly at this time.
regarding “run, cowardly fishes.” Is this a popular phrase? I ask because I played a guy with the name Wednesday in one of those famous 16-mans and wonder if you know him.
Amarsir says: September 10, 2009 @ 10:58 pm
Aren’t the 16-player queues 4 tix now?
gravitygroove says: September 11, 2009 @ 1:19 am
merfolk/lark feels like the only deck that blightning has really good odds against. with doomblades/magma sprays as the SB pieces, it tends to generate serious problems for the fishes. Of course R/B blightning loses to practically everything else right now. =-/
BraveGhostOfYou says: September 11, 2009 @ 1:27 am
I heard about Scott Barrentine doing extremely well in Dallas, but I had no idea that was Athos. Good job man, good luck in Austin.
SnowPaperMonkey says: September 11, 2009 @ 2:17 am
Havent Scott Barrentine (AthosTheMusketeer on MTGO) actually went 4-0 in three different classic events this week? Playing merfolk obv.
double_gg says: September 11, 2009 @ 5:03 am
AthosTheMusketeer has been winning in classic since the MOCS started (or even before that), he’s probably one of the best classic players Online.
And it is really interesting to know that he is Scott Barrentine (no wonder he managed to do that in the 5k and in the ptq with fish, however the format was a bit different):)
Snobert says: September 11, 2009 @ 5:26 am
Beware the repeat
J_Klimek says: September 11, 2009 @ 6:15 am
Annoyingly I find that I can’t place much stock in your articles until I find out which FF you think is the best… I simply MUST know!
Rick says: September 11, 2009 @ 7:41 am
This was easily your most informative article so far. Great job. I won’t have enough to start in on this for the Zendikar release, but maybe when the second set comes out I can get somewhere. I’ll probably try to get a SSB deck together (or borrow one, I suppose), but were I to play Limited, I’d be all over these strategies.
Lpettro says: September 11, 2009 @ 10:00 am
And then after the grinding you can write articles for a major website.
J/k nice article. I know I will be trying some of your tricks.
Adam says: September 11, 2009 @ 10:16 am
Very nicely written. I too am looking for a non-interactive aggressive strategy to start with, although we all know the control decks will gain an edge once their lists are figured out.
Brad Nelson says: September 11, 2009 @ 2:53 pm
@Ryan I have been really thinking about adding a segment at the end of my articles talking about Magic Online players that deserve to be heard from. Thank you for the inspiration to make this happen!
“run, cowardly fishies” is from an online video game called “Team Fortress 2″. Its something one of the characters says.
@ J_Klimek Now thats not really a question now is it. Its obviously FF7. A close 2nd would be FF 3 (6 in Japan I belive). Both of them are the only ones ive played multiple times. NOW if your talking about FFfreaK. FFfreakslittlebro, and FFfreaksgrandmother. It would have to be Littlebro.
Frein says: September 11, 2009 @ 3:13 pm
How do you sell your new set cards? When M10 came out, I opened a few packs hoping they’d be worth more opened than sealed only to find the bots unwilling to buy anything that wasn’t a reprint.
Caleb says: September 11, 2009 @ 6:53 pm
Thanks for the great article. I was wondering what rating you might suggest is necessary to go infinite on MTGO? I know there isn’t a direct correlation, but certainly there’s a cutoff/average somewhere. What does it take?
MH says: September 12, 2009 @ 2:47 am
I just love how all the strategy sites seem to be focusing on ‘going infinite’. Hello-o, the people who can do this are few and far between. The rest of us who try to do it end up paying for their infinite combo.
I for one would like to know just how people sell their cards; classifieds, or just bots ? I doubt you get the best prices from bots and single cards from classifieds? Dunno.
NL says: September 12, 2009 @ 8:11 am
@MH
Even if you don’t end up “going infinite” following these guys advice and working towards the goal will reduce your burn rate of cards/tix/packs etc.
you’ll end up getting in more drafts/sealeds/constructed queues then you would without the advice.
its a path to follow, not a destination.
Kenshin says: September 12, 2009 @ 8:44 am
I guess what MH says is true. In order to let some of us go infinite other peoples have to do the opposite. They just go finite… If you look at a regular 8 man draft there is an investment of 24 boosters and 16 tix and only a payout of 12 boosters at best. There must be some people losing their money. For constructed that ratio is better but after all Wizards is the Casino here that redistributes the money and keeps the lions share for itself.
By reading Brads articles you hopefully get better and maybe you break even. But what was every MTGO players dream before they anounced PTQs on MTGO? To go infinite of course. And there you have a bunch of potential readers, every one dreaming of the prized glory of going infinite. No matter how many actually succed Brads articles will pretty likely help you minimizing your losses and get more learning out of your money. No one said that you can get rich by playing MTGO but you should actually try to make it as cheap sa possible.
Jeremy says: September 12, 2009 @ 11:35 am
I can’t agree more with your friend… Taking Money rares is the way to go, becuz no matter the turn out…you leave the draft happy. Money now, prize later…been preachin that to friends for years
i had one draft online where i was passed 2x duals(one was foil), a great stable stag, a garruk, and a jace….and i won the draft(8-4), i was extremely pleased…i wouldnt had been nearly excited if i took anything else
Killer Bee says: September 12, 2009 @ 11:14 pm
You mean you wouldn’t have been more excited if you picked all 15 of those tomb scours and won the draft? FOR SHAME.
Dan says: September 13, 2009 @ 2:22 pm
Remember that fetch-lands are going to sell like hot cakes so it’ll be rather easy to make tix back just by opening one of those. At least for the first week.
slearch says: September 13, 2009 @ 3:15 pm
“Untapping with six lands and a Sygg, River Guide in play probably has a better win percentage than turn-two Bitterblossom.”
looooooooooooooool
Archipelago says: September 15, 2009 @ 7:21 am
@Brad,
Do you think that the Zendikar pre-release is a good time to get into MTGO? I am looking to get into it, but I want to minimize the money I spend. Thus, I don’t want to play constructed right now as I am going to be needing cards that will be rotating out. If I start at the pre-release and maybe do a few M10 drafts, do you think that the would be a good start? Or should I wait until the new Standard environment is defined and then build the cheapest competitive deck like LSV suggested in his going infinite article?
Madog says: September 16, 2009 @ 10:33 am
run cowardly fishes is also the name of the player who is currently sitting on top of the leaderboard for 2009 sealed magic online championships
Jim Varney says: September 18, 2009 @ 10:44 pm
Poor Athos, I don’t know if the fish are going to be able to hang on in Classic, with fully powered vintage Dredge now in the mix.